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Published Online: 13 December 2018

Overreaction in Football Wagers

Publication: Big Data
Volume 6, Issue Number 4


Football scores are an imperfect measure of a team's ability, and consequently exaggerate differences in abilities. Those teams that perform the best and the worst are not really so far from average in their ability; thus their future performances regress to the mean. Betting data indicate that gamblers do not fully account for this regression.

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Cite this article as: Smith G, Capron A (2018) Overreaction in football wagers. Big Data 6:4, 262–270, DOI: 10.1089/big.2018.0036.

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Published In

cover image Big Data
Big Data
Volume 6Issue Number 4December 2018
Pages: 262 - 270
PubMed: 30427702


Published online: 13 December 2018
Published in print: December 2018
Published ahead of print: 14 November 2018


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Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, California.
Andrew Capron
Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, California.


Address correspondence to: Gary Smith, Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, CA 91711, [email protected]

Author Disclosure Statement

No competing financial interests exist.

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