Research Article
No access
Published Online: 11 March 2022

Trumped by Trump? Public Support for Mail Voting in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Publication: Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy
Volume 21, Issue Number 1

Abstract

How much is support for vote by mail (VBM) impacted by partisan considerations and personal considerations related to the COVID-19 pandemic? Using surveys of registered voters conducted in April and May 2020 designed to assess the support for various electoral reforms, we show that the overall support for expanding VBM in April 2020 falls sharply after just six weeks because Republicans became less worried about catching COVID-19, and unconcerned Republicans became far more opposed to VBM. These differences not only persisted, but actually increased even further between May and Election Day according to a survey done using a different methodology in November 2020. Public support for other reforms that were intended to make voting easier were largely unchanged, however. The pattern of opinion changes we document—perhaps a result of the intense partisan messaging that occurred during the time period of our study—highlights the importance of partisanship and personal considerations for public support for election reforms and also the widespread public support for most proposed reforms.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

REFERENCES

Ahler, Douglas J., and David E. Broockman. 2018. “The Delegate Paradox: Why Polarized Politicians Can Represent Citizens Best.” Journal of Politics 80(4): 1117–1133.
Alvarez, R. Michael, Thad E. Hall, Ines Levin, and Charles Stewart. 2011. “Voter Opinions about Election Reform: Do They Support Making Voting More Convenient?” Election Law Journal 10(2): 73–87.
Ansolabehere, Stephen, Nathaniel Persily, and Charles Stewart III. 2016. “Revisiting Public Opinion on Voter Identification and Voter Fraud in an Era of Increasing Partisan Polarization.” Stanford Law Review 68(6): 1455–1489.
Ashok, Vivekinan, Daniel Feder, Mary McGrath, and Eitan Hersh. 2016. “The Dynamic Election: Patterns of Early Voting Across Time, State, Party, and Age.” Election Law Journal 15(2): 115–128.
Barber, Michael J., and Jeremy C. Pope. 2018. “Does Party Trump Ideology? Disentangling Party and Ideology in America.” American Political Science Review 113(1): 38–54.
Bartels, Larry M. 2002. “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions.” Political Behavior 24 (2): 117–150.
Beers, Tommy. 2020. “All the Times Trump Compared COVID-19 to the Flu, Even After He Knew COVID-19 Was Far More Deadly.” Forbes. Sept 10. <https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/10/all-the-times-trump-compared-covid-19-to-the-flu-even-after-he-knew-covid-19-was-far-more-deadly/>. Accessed April 5, 2021.
Berinsky, Adam, Nancy Burns, and Michael Traugott. 2001. “Who Votes by Mail? A Dynamic Model of the Individual-Level Consequences of Voting-by-Mail Systems.” Public Opinion Quarterly 65(2): 178–197.
Boudreau, Cheryl, and Scott A. Mackenzie. 2014. “Informing the Electorate? How Party Cues and Policy Information Affect Public Opinion about Initiatives.” American Journal of Political Science 58(1): 48–62.
Bradner, Eric, Kate Sullivan, and Ariane de Vogue. 2020. “Wisconsin Primary Set to Go Ahead Tuesday After Courts Block Attempts to Delay Voting Due to Coronavirus.” April 6. CNN. <https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/politics/wisconsin-primary-election/index.html>. Accessed June 13, 2020.
Broockman, David E., and Daniel M. Butler. 2017. “The Causal Effects of Elite Position-Taking on Voter Attitudes: Field Experiments with Elite Communication.” American Journal of Political Science 61(1): 208–221.
Bullock, John G. 2011. “Elite Influence on Public Opinion in an Informed Electorate.” American Political Science Review 105(3): 496–515.
Burden, Barry C., David T. Canon, Kenneth R. Mayer, and Donald P. Moynihan. 2009. The Effects and Costs of Early Voting, Election Day Registration, and Same Day Registration in the 2008 Elections. Report presented to the Pew Charitable Trusts, December 21. Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin–Madison.
Burden, Barry C., David T. Canon, Kenneth R. Mayer, and Donald P. Moynihan. 2011. “Early Voting and Election Day Registration in the Trenches: Local Officials' Perceptions of Election Reform.” Election Law Journal 10(2): 89–102.
Burden, Barry C., David T. Canon, Kenneth R. Mayer, and Donald P. Moynihan. 2017. “The Complicated Partisan Effects of State Election Laws.” Public Research Quarterly 70(3): 564–576.
Clinton, Joshua D., Jon Cohen, John Lapinski, and Mark Trussler. 2021. “Partisan Pandemic: How Partisanship and Public Health Concerns Affect Individuals' Social Mobility During COVID-19.” Science Advances 7(2).
Druckman, James N., Erik Peterson, and Rune Slothuus. 2013. “How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion Formation.” American Political Science Review 107(1): 57–79.
Green, Donald P., Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler. 2002. Partisan Hearts and Minds. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Gronke, Paul, Eva Galanes-Rosenbaum, and Peter A. Miller. 2007. “Early Voting and Turnout.” PS: Political Science and Politics 40(4): 639–645.
Gronke, Paul, and Peter Miller. 2012. “Voting by Mail and Turnout in Oregon: Revisiting Southwell and Burchett.” American Politics Research 40(6): 976–997.
Kropf, Martha E. 2012. “Does Early Voting Change the Socio-Economic Composition of the Electorate?” Poverty & Public Policy 4(1): 1–19.
Lenz, Gabriel S. 2009. “Learning and Opinion Change, Not Priming: Reconsidering the Priming Hypothesis.” American Journal of Political Science 53(4): 821–837.
Lenz, Gabriel S. 2012. Follow the Leader? How Voters Respond to Politicians' Policies and Performance. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Mann, Christopher. 2014. “Mail Ballots in the United States: Policy Choice and Administrative Challenges.” In The Measure of American Elections, eds. Barry Burden and Charles Stewart III, 113–140. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
McCarthy, Kevin. 2020. “As major legislation from the first 3 phases is implemented, the American people cannot afford continued attempts to force partisan objectives into our coronavirus response—especially when they have nothing to do with our war against the disease.” Twitter, April 1, 1:24 p.m. <https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1245431874413105153>.
Meredith, Marc, and Neil Malhotra. 2011. “Convenience Voting Can Affect Election Outcomes.” Election Law Journal 10(3): 227–253.
Montellaro, Zach. 2020. “Republicans and Democrats Barrel Toward Collision on Voting by Mail.” Politico. May 13. <https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/13/vote-mail-poll-255281>. Accessed June 13, 2020.
Monroe, Nathan W., and Dari E. Sylvester. 2011. “Who Converts to Vote-by-Mail? Evidence from a Field Experiment.” Election Law Journal 10(1): 15–35.
National Conference of State Legislatures. 2020. “Absentee and Mail Voting Policies in Effect for the 2020 Election,” NCSL.org, November 3, 2020. <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-mail-voting-policies-in-effect-for-the-2020-election.aspx>.
Nicholson, Stephen P. 2011. “Dominating Cues and the Limits of Elite Influence.” Journal of Politics 73 (4): 1165–1177.
Richey, Sean. 2005. “Who Votes Alone? The Impact of Voting by Mail on Political Discussion.” Australian Journal of Political Science 40(3): 435–442.
Sances, Michael W., and Charles Stewart III. 2015. “Partisanship and Confidence in the Vote Count: Evidence from U.S. National Elections Since 2000.” Electoral Studies 40: 176–188.
Shor, Boris, and Nolan McCarty. 2010. “The Ideological Mapping of State Legislatures.” American Political Science Review 105(3): 530–551.
Smith, Keith, and Dari E. Sylvester. 2013. “Is It the Message or the Person? Lessons from a Field Experiment About Who Converts to Permanent Vote by Mail.” Election Law Journal 12(3): 243–260.
Southwell, Priscilla L. 2004. “Five Years Later: A Re-Assessment of Oregon's Vote by Mail Electoral Process.” PS: Politics and Political Science 37(1): 89–93.
Southwell, Priscilla L., and Justin Burchett. 1997. “Survey of Vote-by-Mail Senate Election in the State of Oregon.” PS: Political Science and Politics 30(1): 53–57.
Stein, Robert M. 1998. “Early Voting.” Public Opinion Quarterly 62(1): 57–69.
Stein, Robert M., and Patricia A. Garcia-Monet. 1997. “Voting Early, But Not Often.” Social Science Quarterly 78(3): 657–671.
Stewart, Charles. 2011. “Adding up the Costs and Benefits of Voting by Mail.” Election Law Journal 10(3): 297–301.
Stewart, Charles. 2017. “2016 Survey of the Performance of American Elections.” Harvard Dataverse, VI, <https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/Y38VIQ>.
Stewart, Charles. 2021. “2020 Survey of the Performance of American Elections.” Harvard Dataverse, VI, <https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/FSGX7Z>.
Thompson, Dennis F. 2004. “Election Time: Normative Implications of Temporal Properties of the Electoral Process in the United States.” American Political Science Review 98(1): 51–64.
Trump, Donald. 2020a. “Republicans should fight very hard when it comes to state wide mail-in voting. Democrats are clamoring for it. Tremendous potential for voter fraud, and for whatever reason, doesn't work out well for Republicans. @foxandfriends.” Twitter, April 8, 8:20 a.m. <https://www.thetrumparchive.com/?dates=%5B”2020-04-09”,”2020-04-10”%5D&results=1&searchbox=“absentee”>.
Trump, Donald. 2020b. “GET RID OF BALLOT HARVESTING, IT IS RAMPANT WITH FRAUD. THE USA MUST HAVE VOTER I.D., THE ONLY WAY TO GET AN HONEST COUNT!” Twitter, April 14, 10:24 a.m. <https://www.thetrumparchive.com/?dates=%5B”2020-04-15”,”2020-04-16”%5D&results=1&searchbox=“voter”>.
Ura, Alexa. 2020. “Texas Supreme Court: Lack of Immunity to Coronavirus Alone Isn't Enough for Mail-In Ballot.” Texas Tribune. May 27. <https://www.texastribune.org/2020/05/27/texas-vote-by-mail-coronavirus/>.
Walker, Hannah L., Michael C. Herron, and Daniel A. Smith. 2019. “Early Voting Changes and Voter Turnout: North Carolina in the 2016 General Election.” Political Behavior 41: 841–869.
Wise, Lindsay, and Alexa Corse. 2020. “Partisan Fight Looms Over Voting by Mail.” Wall Street Journal. April 29. <https://www.wsj.com/articles/partisan-fight-looms-over-voting-by-mail-11588167903>. Accessed June 13. 2020.
Yoder, Jesse, Cassandra Handan-Hader, Andrew Myers, Tobias Nowacki, Danial M. Thompson, Jennifer A. Wu, Chenoa Yorgason, and Andrew Hall. 2021. “How Did Absentee Voting Affect the 2020 U.S. Election?” Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Working Paper No. 21-011. Available at: <https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/21-011.pdf>.
Zaller, John R. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

cover image Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy
Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy
Volume 21Issue Number 1March 2022
Pages: 19 - 33

History

Published online: 11 March 2022
Published in print: March 2022
Published ahead of print: 24 September 2021
Accepted: 18 June 2021
Revision received: 24 May 2021
Received: 16 June 2020

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Topics

Authors

Affiliations

Joshua D. Clinton [email protected]
Joshua D. Clinton is the Abby and Jon Winkelried Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
John Lapinski
John Lapinski is the Robert A. Fox Professor of Political Science at University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Sarah Lentz
Sarah Lentz is a Research Associate at the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Stephen Pettigrew
Stephen Pettigrew is the Director of Data Sciences at the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.

Notes

Address correspondence to: Joshua D. Clinton, Department of Political Science, Vanderbilt University, PMB 505, 230 Appleton Place, Nashville, Tennessee 37203-5721, USA [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Export citation

Select the format you want to export the citations of this publication.

View Options

Access content

To read the fulltext, please use one of the options below to sign in or purchase access.

Society Access

If you are a member of a society that has access to this content please log in via your society website and then return to this publication.

Restore your content access

Enter your email address to restore your content access:

Note: This functionality works only for purchases done as a guest. If you already have an account, log in to access the content to which you are entitled.

View options

PDF/EPUB

View PDF/EPUB

Full Text

View Full Text

Figures

Tables

Media

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share on social media

Back to Top